Erin Could Become First Hurricane This Weekend

Forecasts suggest Erin could intensify from tropical storm to hurricane by Friday and pose risky surf and swells for Caribbean islands and the Atlantic coast.

Erin expected to become season's first hurricane this weekend

Tropical Storm Erin sits about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center projects Erin to become a hurricane by Friday and potentially reach major hurricane strength later this weekend, though the forecast track keeps the storm's center away from land for now. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 60 miles from the center, and swells are expected to reach parts of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Forecasters say gradual strengthening is likely over the next day, with more significant intensification possible on Friday and Saturday. The forecast track would bring Erin to hurricane strength by Friday afternoon with about 80 mph winds, then to major hurricane strength early Sunday with winds around 115 mph and gusts near 140 mph. Warmer Atlantic waters and less wind shear could allow rapid intensification, while the forecast cone still carries uncertainty about land impacts. No watches or warnings are in place yet, but residents should monitor advisories as swells and surf risk increase. Separately, a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has a 20% chance of development in the next two to seven days, possibly bringing rain to northeastern Mexico or southern Texas.

Forecasts show how hurricane forecasting hinges on water temperature, wind shear, storm size, and speed. Erin’s potential rapid intensification highlights the risk of surprises even when the center remains offshore. The current track favors offshore motion, but swells and gusty winds can still disrupt coastal areas and shipping lanes.

Beyond the science, the situation tests public communication and preparedness. The fatalities linked to earlier floods from this system’s path remind us that danger can arrive before a landfall. The best response is clear, timely information and readiness that turns warnings into action.

Highlights

As Erin moves, communities weigh risk and readiness.