Nvidia stock set for new high after China license deal

Nvidia and AMD strike a government deal to share 15 percent of China generated revenue in return for export licenses potentially boosting near term demand.

Nvidia stock set for new high after China license deal

Nvidia stock has moved into the spotlight after news that the company and AMD agreed with the U.S. government to share 15 percent of revenue from China in exchange for export licenses. In the April quarter Nvidia reported about 7.1 billion in revenue from China, with 4.6 billion earned before April 9 and around 2.5 billion blocked by the export ban. Analysts say licensing could stretch into August, but the deal could speed up license approvals and reopen a key market for Nvidia in the July quarter, with revenue targets near 45 billion.

Beyond the licensing detail, the market view centers on a strong demand picture for Nvidia products in a tight supply environment. U.S. hyperscale buyers are expanding capex, and data center demand remains ahead of Nvidia’s current production. Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar lifted his price target to 225 dollars from 180, signaling about 23 percent upside over the next year, while noting the Street is already adjusting estimates for the July quarter to around 45.7 billion. Even with China in the mix, the overall message is a demand that outpaces supply for the near term, a dynamic many expect to persist into year end as licensing and ramp timing play out.

The licensing move blends policy risk with business strategy. A 15 percent revenue share transfers part of Nvidia China earnings to the government, which introduces a political variable into a company built on global expansion. Yet the market response suggests investors prize clarity on policy and the promise of a timelier license process that could unlock shipments already queued. If approvals move faster than anticipated, Nvidia could see a sharper near term uplift than current models assume. If not, the upside could be capped by a slower reopen and ongoing supply constraints.

Looking further, the story hinges on execution more than origin. The AI compute boom remains the main driver for Nvidia, but the path to sustained growth will rely on how quickly licenses translate into actual shipments and how responsive suppliers are to rising demand. For policymakers and investors alike, the key question is whether the regulatory timetable aligns with the company’s supply chain resilience and customer needs in a rapidly evolving market.

Highlights

The next chapter will test how quickly policy and supply chain can translate into real orders.