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Nvidia eyes earnings with cautious near term outlook

Guidance points to strong revenue and margins but Morgan Stanley warns the near term could be tempered.

August 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
blur All Eyes on Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings; Here’s What Morgan Stanley Expects

Nvidia approaches earnings with strong growth signals but a cautious near term view from Morgan Stanley.

Nvidia braces for earnings as Morgan Stanley flags near term caution

Nvidia heads into earnings with momentum from AI demand and hyperscalers’ capital spending. The company guides fiscal Q2 revenue around 45 billion dollars with margins above 70 percent, a pace that would mark about 50 percent year over year growth.

Key Takeaways

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Nvidia guides Q2 revenue near 45B with margins above 70 percent
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Guidance implies around 50 percent year over year growth
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Morgan Stanley cautions on the current quarter despite long term momentum
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Blackwell ramp and tier 2 customers may lift second half performance
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China export license uncertainty adds a key regulatory risk
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R&D spend exceeds 15B annually reinforcing data center leadership
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Street consensus shows strong buy with meaningful upside potential
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Hyperscaler spending and AI initiatives provide a continuing tailwind

"We're a little measured on the current quarter – our optimism centers on what lies ahead."

Moore's cautious near term view on Nvidia earnings.

"Supply is what matters on the night of the earnings call, but demand is what sets the path into 2026."

Balance of supply and demand described by the analyst.

"The demand story is intact and only growing stronger."

Analyst assessment of Nvidia's long term momentum.

Analysts say the long term story stays intact even as the near term looks muted. The stock market has priced in aggressive AI demand, but the quarterly outlook could still swing on supply and policy details. Nvidia’s push into data centers is supported by large R&D investments and a growing ecosystem of customers. The balance between supply, demand, and regulatory factors will shape how the stock performs into 2026.

Highlights

  • Supply will decide earnings night
  • The horizon for 2026 looks brighter
  • Tier-2 customers could surprise to the upside
  • China licensing could swing Nvidia’s growth

Geopolitical and market risks around Nvidia

China export license uncertainty and heavy reliance on AI investment create potential volatility for Nvidia in the near term, amplifying market reactions to quarterly results.

The coming weeks will reveal how much of the hype Nvidia can turn into real growth.

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