Bitcoin bears surface as options skew shifts

Two indicators point to a potential bearish regime for Bitcoin ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.

Bearish Momentum Emerges as Skew and GMMA Signal Shift

Bitcoin indicators point to a possible shift in market sentiment. The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue by volume, sits at -0.42, the lowest since June 2023, according to Amberdata. A negative skew means traders are buying more put options to protect against declines, signaling rising caution over the medium term. Bitcoin hovered near levels within about 8% of its all-time high above 124,000 dollars reached last week, suggesting the move could precede a larger trend rather than be a mere pullback. Long-dated downside bets have grown as traders hedge into Powell’s Jackson Hole address, with bets around the 110,000 dollar strike for August and September coming into focus.

The second signal comes from the Guppy multiple moving average indicator, which shows BTC breaking below the short-term and long-term bands. That pattern, along with a strengthening MACD histogram, points to fading upside momentum and a potential start of a downturn. The blend of options activity and price action paints a cautious picture for bulls as traders prepare for Powell’s remarks about the federal stance on rates and the timing of any cuts.

The market is weighing macro signals against crypto-specific dynamics. If Powell hints at a slower or more cautious easing path, crypto traders may tilt toward risk-off, reinforcing a bear tone. If the Fed signals faster or deeper cuts than expected, risk appetite could rebound, lifting both equities and crypto. The setup resembles a classic sell-the-news moment, but the ongoing volatility in derivatives markets suggests the next move could be more about regime shift than a straightforward correction. Investors should watch for how hedging activity interacts with price action in the days around the Jackson Hole symposium.

Highlights

The coming days will reveal whether this bearish tilt is a bridge to a new regime or a temporary pause in a longer uptrend.