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UK Expected to See Decline in Business Activity

British private sector activity projected to drop to -18% in the third quarter of 2023.

July 30, 2025 at 08:54 AM
blur Business Activity Falling at Fastest Pace Since Pandemic

UK businesses are on track for their weakest quarter since 2020.

UK Businesses Face Steep Decline in Economic Activity

According to the Confederation of British Industry, British private sector activity is projected to drop to -18% in the third quarter of 2023. This downturn follows a steep decline of -26% recorded in the previous three months. Companies are grappling with high employment costs and diminished consumer spending, amidst rising global uncertainty. Alpesh Paleja, deputy chief economist at the CBI, noted that firms are seeking clarity in upcoming government measures to enhance competitiveness. In contrast, household liquid assets rose by £8.8 billion in June, indicating families are conserving funds as prices increase.

Key Takeaways

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Private sector activity anticipated to reach -18% in Q3 2023.
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-26% decline already noted for Q2 2023, indicating prolonged downturn.
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Higher employment costs continue to pressure businesses.
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Consumer spending remains cautious due to rising prices.
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Government response in autumn budget crucial for recovery.
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Household liquid assets increased, but spending is slowing.

"Companies are still grappling with higher employment costs and cautious spending."

Alpesh Paleja highlights ongoing challenges for businesses in the UK.

"Firms will be looking for further certainty in the Autumn Budget."

This quote reflects the desire for clarity among businesses as they face economic decline.

The expected drop in business activity signals wider economic challenges for the UK. Increased employment costs and cautious consumer behavior have led to a bleak outlook for many companies. The government’s ability to respond effectively in the upcoming Autumn Budget will be vital in restoring confidence among businesses. As households tighten spending, the potential for economic recovery seems uncertain, raising alarms for future growth amidst prevailing inflation.

Highlights

  • UK businesses face one of their toughest quarters since the pandemic.
  • Households are tightening their belts as prices rise.
  • Government clarity in the budget is crucial for business confidence.
  • Economic recovery in the UK remains uncertain.

Economic Decline Poses Risks

The significant drop in business activity raises concerns about the UK’s economic stability and future growth. Policymakers must address these challenges promptly to mitigate backlash from the business community.

The path forward for UK businesses hangs in the balance as they await governmental direction.

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