Six Overvalued Fantasy Football Picks to Avoid Sleeper

A critical look at six players priced too high in Sleeper ADP for 2025 redraft leagues.

Six Overvalued Fantasy Football Picks to Avoid Sleeper

With the 2025 preseason underway, fantasy managers are adjusting to a draft board that has shifted since last season. Sleeper ADP marks six players as overpriced in redraft leagues. The list includes Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City, Bucky Irving of Tampa Bay, Joe Mixon of Houston, Terry McLaurin of Washington, Chris Godwin of Tampa Bay, and Jonnu Smith of Pittsburgh. For each, the piece notes reasons to question the price, from injury risk and backfield competition to changing roles and aging.

Patrick Mahomes sits as a late third-round value in some formats, but the article argues his price tag is high for a QB with recent regression in multiple categories and with roster changes that could shift early game plans. Rashee Rice's suspension complicates this further, and the Chiefs may lean on more run-heavy elements early in the season.

Bucky Irving is listed as a high-upside back in a backfield that still includes Rachaad White. White’s higher route participation and target share suggest a more balanced split than Irving’s ADP implies, reducing the ceiling for Irving in early fantasy weeks.

Joe Mixon has a strong past season but carries questions about late-season durability and an injury history that could clamp Week 1 value if the Texans start slowly and road graders falter. The Texans’ offensive line and run blocking are central concerns for Mixon’s upside.

Terry McLaurin appears expensive given a quiet training camp so far and potential touchdown regression after finishing with 13 TDs last year. The Washington offense also faces questions about target distribution and quarterback stability.

Chris Godwin carries injury baggage from 2024 and might begin the year on a snap count. Tampa Bay has young receivers pressing for roles, which could cap Godwin’s volume and fantasy payoff.

Jonnu Smith is coming off a career-best season but is a veteran in an evolving offense. His role is less defined in Pittsburgh, and the path to consistent targets looks narrow.

Taken together, the list reflects a draft season where market prices may not align with near-term workloads, making patience and value-oriented targets crucial for success.

The core tension in this evaluation is value versus risk. When ADP climbs, it often reflects hype and past performance, not guaranteed production. The players cited show why a big name does not guarantee a big week. Draft strategy should favor players with clear roles, durable workloads, and an attainable path to target share. The piece also underlines how roster changes and injuries can flip a season’s forecast in moments, not months. Managers who separate value from name recognition tend to build steadier teams rather than chase headlines.

Highlights

Draft with a plan and stay flexible as rosters settle and the season unfolds.