T4K3.news
ONS data reliability hits Reeves budget
UK officials warn data quality problems at the ONS may complicate the autumn budget and forecasting paths.
UK statistics quality issues cast doubt on the autumn budget and the accuracy of forecasts used by the Treasury and the spending watchdog.
ONS data failures threaten Reeves budget
The Guardian report details deep problems at the Office for National Statistics that affect the reliability of a wide range of data the government relies on. Delays and quality issues in releases from key indicators, including the labour force survey and household wealth data, have left officials with an incomplete view of the economy as they prepare for the autumn budget. The dependency on imperfect data could push the Office for Budget Responsibility to flag higher uncertainty in its forecasts again, which in turn may influence tax and spend plans.
Officials note that the longer data problems last, the harder it becomes to judge the headroom available under fiscal rules. The OBR has previously warned that revisions to figures can disrupt planning, and sources say the situation has left the government in a cautious posture as it monitors the impact on borrowing costs and policy pathways. The ONS has appointed a new chief executive to steer reforms, with a plan that promises to refocus resources on core economic outputs while continuing to address data-quality concerns. Treasury and the OBR both stress that they are using a broad mix of data sources to inform decisions while the agency repairs its processes.
Key Takeaways
"It is critical from our point of view that these issues are addressed"
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on data quality
"Ideally, what we want to do is have a snapshot of where the economy just was before we try to figure out where it is going over the next five years"
Richard Hughes, head of the OBR, on forecasting limits
"We are, to a significant extent, flying blind on major areas such as the jobs market"
An economist with knowledge of OBR processes commenting on data gaps
"This government is building a stronger economy for a renewed Britain, kickstarting economic growth based on rigorous and robust analysis"
Treasury spokesperson defending government approach
The episode exposes a structural risk in the way budgets are built on numbers that may not be stable. When key datasets are revised or delayed, policy choices—whether tax changes, spending allocations, or borrowing plans—lose clarity and become more political. The tension is not only about accuracy but about trust. If the public sees official forecasts shifting due to data flaws, it can undermine the credibility of the policy path and feed market volatility.
In the longer run, this could fuel calls for more independent data governance, better funding for statistics, and clearer communication about what figures can and cannot tell us. The episode raises questions about how quickly a government can adjust to new information without triggering a blame game. The path forward will require transparent revisions, stronger leadership at the ONS, and a commitment to producing timely, durable statistics that match policy needs.
Highlights
- Data quality is not a sideshow it shapes our budget
- We are flying blind on the jobs market
- Ideally we want a snapshot of where the economy was before we forecast
- Numbers must catch up with policy needs
Budget and political risk from data reliability
Persistent data quality issues at the ONS threaten to derail the autumn budget by weakening forecast reliability and increasing policy risk. The result could be misguided tax and spending decisions, public criticism, and market uncertainty.
The coming months will test whether data reform can keep pace with policy needs.
Enjoyed this? Let your friends know!
Related News
UK government appeals Epping hotel ruling
Government borrowing in UK rises significantly
UK inflation climbs toward 3.7 percent in July
Dividend tax changes analyzed
Thames Water contingency plans approved
UK borrowing slows in July
Debt rises in Labour's first year
UK borrowing slows in July as Reeves gains room ahead of budget
