Sanctions loom as talks linger

BBC Verify assesses potential sanctions tied to talks between Trump and Putin and the reactions from India and China.

Trump weighs sanctions as Putin talks linger

President Donald Trump has said there is a 25% chance that his talks with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska about ending the Ukraine war will be unsuccessful. If that proves true, he has signaled that more sanctions against Russia could follow, including steps aimed at other countries that continue to trade with Moscow.

Trump has threatened secondary sanctions that would punish other countries that trade with Russia. He said India would face a 25% import tax on goods sent to the United States, to take effect on August 27. India has called the tariffs unjustified, and China has described them as illegal. The United States has paused tariffs on Chinese imports while talks continue on a broader trade deal. India is a major buyer of Russian oil, and China is the biggest buyer, meaning sanctions could ripple through energy markets.

The remarks come as Washington uses sanctions to influence Ukraine diplomacy, a tactic that tests alliances and could push partners to balance against Russia or seek more independence.

The situation shows how economic levers are used alongside diplomacy to shape a conflict that remains unresolved. Secondary sanctions can lever decisions in faraway capitals, but they also risk eroding trust with allies who fear costly or unintended consequences. The risk is a shift from targeted pressure to broad economic signals that complicate long term planning for energy buyers and investors.

At stake is not just the Ukraine war but the broader pattern of global supply chains and alliance habits. If partners view sanctions as a tool of coercion rather than negotiation, they may resist or recalibrate their own commitments, with market volatility to follow. The challenge for policymakers is to pursue aims without triggering a costly backlash or a race to reconfigure oil routes and trade deals.

Highlights

Diplomacy moves in slow motion while markets watch the clock.