Rail fares could rise up to 5.6% next year

Campaigners warn that a rise in rail fares tied to July inflation could price passengers off trains, raising questions about affordability and government plans.

Rail fares in England could rise by "outrageous" 5.6% next year

England's rail fares may go up by as much as 5.6% next year, with regulated fares tied to the July inflation reading. City economists forecast the July RPI at about 4.6%, and if the pattern from last year repeats, regulated fares would rise 5.6% in 2026. The government has not yet confirmed its method for next year, and last March's rise was 4.6%, one percentage point above the July 2024 RPI. Regulated fares cover about half of rail journeys, including many commuter season tickets and some long-distance returns.

Railfuture spokesperson Bruce Williamson called the proposed rise outrageous and questioned any justification for lifting prices above inflation. He warned it could price passengers off trains and push demand onto a congested road network. He also suggested that a future move to public ownership could allow savings to be passed to passengers, though he fears Treasury spending could swallow them. The government says it aims to balance affordability for passengers and taxpayers while pursuing public ownership through plans like Great British Railways.

The proposal exposes a broader clash over how reforming railways should be funded. Inflation-linked fare rises collide with public pressure for affordable travel and reliable service. The debate also echoes a longer fight over who pays for rail infrastructure when growth and climate goals require investment.

If public ownership becomes the main channel for reform, the political math shifts toward prioritizing riders and taxpayers over pure market returns. That shift could change how future fares are set, how fast improvements come, and who ultimately bears the costs.

Highlights

As plans unfold, affordability remains a test for public trust