Rail fares could rise next year

July’s inflation figure will help determine the cap on regulated rail fare increases for 2026 and shape public response.

Rail Fares Set to Rise 5.5 Percent Triggers Public Backlash

Public transport groups warn a 5.5 percent rise in rail fares could come next year if July’s RPI inflation stays high. The government has not yet announced how it will set the cap for 2026. Last year’s increase was 4.6 percent, which was above the July 2024 RPI. Analysts from Investec expect July’s RPI to be around 4.5 percent, which supports the 5.5 percent forecast.

Bruce Williamson of Railfuture called a rise of that size outrageous and questioned why fares should grow faster than inflation. He said there is no justification for raising prices above inflation and warned it would push people to use the road network. Campaign for Better Transport argues that higher fares not only burden passengers but also reduce rail use, citing a survey where 71 percent would travel more if fares were cheaper. The group also notes that Great British Railways should use reform to make rail travel more affordable since public support for nationalisation could fall if fares keep rising. The Department for Transport says the transport secretary wants a railway that people can rely on and affordability remains a goal, with decisions on next year’s fares still to come. About 45 percent of fares are regulated by government bodies, including commuter season tickets and some long distance options, which means policy changes will affect a broad slice of riders.

The debate over fare rises mirrors a wider tension in the rail plan now carried by public hands. If prices rise faster than inflation, many passengers may curtail travel, undermining efforts to shift people from cars to trains. That would complicate the goal of a more integrated, publicly run system under Great British Railways. The government says affordability must balance taxpayer costs, but that requires clear savings from efficiency and reform, not simply higher bills for riders. As politicians weigh the politics of a public service, the fate of rail reform may hinge on whether savings reach passengers or simply fill the Treasury.

Highlights

The coming weeks will test how far affordability shapes the plan for a modern rail network.