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Mark Zandi Warns of US Recession

Economist Mark Zandi says the US economy is on the edge of a recession, citing tariffs and labor market issues.

August 4, 2025 at 02:57 PM
blur US Economy Is 'on the Precipice' of a Recession, Mark Zandi Says

Mark Zandi warns that the US economy is approaching a recession due to tariffs and labor issues.

US Economy Faces Imminent Recession According to Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, recently indicated that the US economy is nearing recession. He stated that despite potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, they may not prevent an economic downturn. Zandi cited weakening consumer spending along with challenges in construction and manufacturing as key factors contributing to this outlook. He pointed out that rising inflation makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to provide effective support. Zandi further emphasized that tariffs are impacting company profits and household purchasing power, while a decrease in immigrant workers is limiting economic growth. The job market is also under strain, shown by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data that indicated a significant drop in job creation.

Key Takeaways

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Mark Zandi predicts a looming recession for the US economy.
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Consumer spending is weakening, impacting overall growth.
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Tariffs are hurting company profits and household budgets.
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Immigration policy is contributing to a smaller labor force.
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Recent job growth figures were disappointing, raising concerns.
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Interest rate cuts may not prevent the predicted downturn.

"The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households."

Zandi emphasizes the negative impact of tariffs on both businesses and consumers.

"Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy."

This statement underscores the broader economic implications of immigration policy.

"With inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue."

Zandi points out the Fed's challenges in addressing economic issues amid rising inflation.

"The growth of the US labor force has gone sideways as participation falls."

Zandi's remark indicates concerning trends in job market participation rates.

The warning from Zandi highlights a growing consensus among economists about the fragility of the US economy. While low unemployment rates typically symbolize economic health, Zandi's analysis suggests that underlying issues are being overlooked. The dual pressure of tariffs and immigration policy could be signaling deeper structural problems that fuel this recession scenario. As consumer confidence wanes and job growth falters, the implications for both investors and policymakers could be significant. The Fed's responses may not be enough to counteract these pressures, indicating uncertain times ahead for American households and businesses alike.

Highlights

  • The US economy is on the precipice of recession.
  • Rising inflation complicates Federal Reserve actions.
  • Tariffs are cutting deeply into American profits.
  • A smaller labor force limits economic potential.

Economic Risks Enveloping the US

The potential recession could lead to significant challenges for businesses and consumers alike. Factors such as inflation, tariffs, and a declining labor force raise alarms about long-term economic stability.

The economy's future remains uncertain as policymakers search for solutions.

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