Fourth pick becomes the sweet spot in 2025 fantasy football drafts

Mike Vorkunov argues that the fourth pick offers the best balance of upside and depth for 2025 fantasy rosters.

Fourth pick becomes the sweet spot in 2025 fantasy football drafts

This year’s fantasy football season looks set to be especially engaging. The top two rounds appear deeper than in recent years, with the first 24 picks offering clearer value this August. For example, Drake London is now projected around the 21st pick in ADP after finishing as WR14 in average points, a jump from his 2023 performance. Jonathan Taylor also moved into the mid rounds despite past injuries, following a 2024 season with strong rushing numbers and a top-10 finish in total points. The takeaway is that the draft landscape is more predictable at the top, giving managers a chance to plan with confidence.

The author makes a targeted case for the No. 4 pick as a sweet spot. Landing a high-upside player there can set a foundation that still leaves meaningful second-round options. The top tier is narrowly defined by Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley, with Gibbs singled out for potential breakout if his share of snaps and pass-game usage rise. That dynamic matters because the Lions have shown a fluctuating landscape in carries and targets, and any shift toward 60 percent snap share could push Gibbs into elite scoring territory. In the 12-team format, the second round (No. 21) opens a bundle of viable paths, whether stacking running backs with a top receiver or chasing a top quarterback later to maximize position-specific upside. The piece emphasizes strategic flexibility over rigid plans, highlighting the tradeoffs between skewing RB-heavy versus locking in premier wide receivers or a high-end QB early.

Highlights

Draft day is a test of discipline and foresight, not just memory of last season.