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Chipotle adjusts sales forecast due to declining customer traffic

Chipotle expects flat same-store sales growth for 2025 amid ongoing traffic declines.

July 23, 2025 at 07:30 PM
blur Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q2 2025 earnings

Chipotle adjusts projections as customer visits fall for the second quarter.

Chipotle lowers sales forecast amid declining customer traffic

Chipotle Mexican Grill announced a lower forecast for same-store sales growth after experiencing a decline in customer traffic for two consecutive quarters. The chain anticipates flat sales growth for 2025, down from earlier expectations of low-single-digit growth. Although shares have fallen 13% this year, CEO Scott Boatwright indicated a potential turnaround starting in June, attributed to summer promotions and a new Adobo Ranch dip. Despite a greater drop in same-store sales of 4%, which surpassed previous estimates, the company's net sales rose 3% to $3.06 billion, signaling growth from new restaurant openings. Chipotle remains optimistic about long-term growth, believing it can return to mid-single-digit sales increases.

Key Takeaways

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Chipotle lowers 2025 same-store sales forecast to flat growth
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Customer traffic declines for two consecutive quarters
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Shares dropped 13% this year, indicating investor concerns
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Optimistic turnaround noted since June with new promotions
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Average check value increased, though traffic fell 4.9%
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Net income fell to $436.1 million from previous year
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Chipotle plans to open 315 to 345 new restaurants this year.

"There's no smoking gun here that says we've had a misstep."

This highlights the CEO's confidence in the company's strategy despite recent challenges.

"Exiting the quarter, we returned to positive comp and transaction trends."

This statement reflects a slight rebound in customer visits starting in June.

"We can return to same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits in the long term."

Boatwright expresses optimism about the company's ability to grow despite current setbacks.

"Diners' concerns about the economy led them to skip restaurant visits and save their money instead."

This comment underscores the impact of economic conditions on consumer behavior toward dining out.

The recent adjustments by Chipotle highlight the challenges facing the restaurant industry as economic uncertainties shift consumer spending habits. Despite a strong brand presence and efforts to attract diners through promotions, the company's inability to maintain steady growth underscores the pressures of a competitive market. Chipotle's focus on innovation and improving customer experiences may offer a pathway to recovery. However, the decline in traffic raises questions about whether these strategies will suffice in an environment where consumers are becoming increasingly cautious with their discretionary spending.

Highlights

  • Chipotle is adjusting its strategy, but can it regain customer loyalty?
  • A decline in traffic raises challenges for Chipotle's growth trajectory.
  • New promotions may not be enough to reverse the downturn for Chipotle.
  • Innovations are crucial for Chipotle as it faces tough consumer choices.

Financial risks for Chipotle amid declining sales

Chipotle's adjustment of its sales forecasts raises concerns about its financial stability and investor confidence, especially with traffic dropping significantly.

As Chipotle navigates these challenges, its ability to innovate will be key to regaining customer loyalty.

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