Bitcoin faces bearish risk as macro outlook dims

Analysts flag a potential Bitcoin decline as U.S. macro conditions weaken, even as ETF inflows persist and BTC outperforms the S&P 500.

Bitcoin faces bearish risk as U.S. macro clouds outlook

Bitcoin reached an all time high of 124474 on August 14 and then slipped to around 115000 within four days, signaling renewed bearish pressure. ETF inflows into BTC products remained strong as institutions continued to buy spot exposure. Over the past year, Bitcoin delivered a 101 percent gain while the S&P 500 rose 17.2 percent, underscoring its appeal to liquidity seekers. The price action comes as macro indicators point to caution, with the ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads in a lower range suggesting a slower downside rather than a quick rally. Analyst Joao Wedson has warned that bearish macro sentiment has been building since 2022, predicting a challenging path into 2026. On the demand side, Bitcoin under management stands at about 152.18 billion dollars (589,260 BTC) since 2024, though August net flows were negative 11.5 million. Corporate holdings rose to 4.8 percent of supply, and MetaPlanet purchased 93 million worth of BTC.

Two forces pull on Bitcoin right now. Strong ETF inflows and the steady outperformance against the S&P 500 attract new buyers, while weakening U.S. macro signals keep risk appetite capped. That tension means BTC can rise on liquidity but remains vulnerable to a broader economic downturn that slows demand for risk assets. If macro weakness persists, buyers may stay selective, limiting upside even as corporate treasuries and institutions add BTC to balance sheets. The forecast for 2026 is a reminder that crypto markets are part of the wider economy, not separate from it.

Highlights

Time will tell how BTC's path aligns with the broader economy.