Bitcoin cycle debate

Industry analysts are split on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle future as institutional holders control supply and ETFs change market dynamics.

Bitcoin four-year cycles ending due to institutional control

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has long been tied to the halving, with price peaks typically arriving in the year after the event. Recent voices, however, suggest the pattern could be unraveling as large treasury wallets accumulate BTC and ETFs steer inflows. Jason Williams, a crypto author and investor, notes that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury wallets hold almost 1 MILLION BTC and argues the four-year pattern may be over. Other experts, including Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management, acknowledge pressure on the cycle but differ on whether it has truly ended.

Macro factors such as regulatory changes, ETF adoption, and expanding institutional capital have become as influential as the halving. Some see the four-year frame as a guide rather than a rule, while others insist the cycle remains relevant and will reassert itself with future rallies. There are dissenters who argue the cycle remains intact, pointing to ongoing halving dynamics and stable historical patterns as evidence that the cycle still matters.

The debate reflects a shift from a retail-driven story to an institutional framework. If large owners and ETF flows increasingly shape price action, Bitcoin may move on macro signals, liquidity from wealth platforms, and policy cues rather than a fixed four-year rhythm. That could alter timing models built around halvings and force investors to rethink risk management, diversification, and the role of market narratives in price discovery. The risk is not simply a missed trade but a broader misread of what drives Bitcoin’s value in a more mature, regulated market.

Highlights

The next chapter for Bitcoin may hinge on how rules and money interact rather than a fixed calendar.