Bills Lead AFC as Chiefs Face New Challenge

A projection model places Buffalo as the AFC favorite, reshaping expectations for the Chiefs and the entire conference.

Bills Lead AFC as Chiefs Face New Challenge

The NFL Projection Model by An NFL Projection Model headlined by Austin Mock places Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the AFC. The twist this year is the order: Buffalo is the top pick, Baltimore is second, and the Chiefs are a close third. The model runs play by play data and simulates 100,000 seasons to estimate wins, playoff chances and division titles.

In the AFC East, Buffalo is favored to win the division with a 74 percent chance. The Patriots look like the next best option, helped by coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye and a plan to double last year’s win total. The Dolphins and Jets trail, not yet ready to challenge. In the AFC North, Baltimore leads with a 55 percent chance to win the division, while Cincinnati is at 32 percent. The Browns and Steelers sit further back as the model weighs quarterback questions. In the South, the Texans are projected to win about 45 percent of the time, with Jaguars at 26 percent; the Colts and Titans are further down the stack. In the West, Kansas City remains the favorite at 60 percent, with the Broncos at 21 percent. The Chargers and Raiders are shown as capable but not yet dominant, with injuries and quarterback play shaping the ceiling for both teams.

The numbers reveal a more competitive AFC than the Chiefs have faced in a long run, but they also expose the limits of any projection. Health, development, and in-season momentum can tilt outcomes in ways a model cannot fully predict. Even so, the Bills appear poised to capitalize on consistency and depth, while the Patriots’ potential rise shows how a favorable schedule and strong coaching can still redraw a division map. This is less a demolition of the Chiefs than a reminder that the window for dynasty status in the AFC is not closed, just ajar.

Beyond the numbers, the projections matter because they shape expectations, trades, and how fans talk about the season. They put pressure on teams to prove the model wrong in real games and invite bettors to test the curve on opening-week lines. In that sense, the model is a starting point, not a verdict, about who can win the conference this year.

Highlights

The field will test the numbers once games begin and injuries mount.