Waller favorites for Fed chair position rise above 50%

Waller's odds have surpassed other contenders for the Federal Reserve chair position.

Christopher Waller emerges as top candidate for Fed chair

Prediction market Kalshi shows that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's chances of becoming the next Fed chair have now exceeded those of former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. His odds rose above 50% after reports indicated Waller's favorable reception among President Trump's advisors. Trump's team appreciates Waller's willingness to reshape monetary policy based on forecasts rather than just data. This shift has pushed Waller's odds from 16% to a leading position. Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, noted Waller's dovish approach appeals to investors. Currently, Hassett and Warsh stand at 20% and 35% odds, respectively, on Kalshi, while Waller leads on Polymarket with 35%. Trump hinted at a preference for Hassett and Warsh, saying both are good candidates. However, he emphasized that their performance if chosen may not meet expectations.

The rise of Christopher Waller as the leading contender for the Federal Reserve chair signals a significant shift in how monetary policy may be approached under potential future leadership. Waller's comfortable stance in prediction markets reflects a growing alignment between investor expectations and his economic viewpoints. As interest rates remain a contentious and vital topic, the influence of Trump's advisors may reshape how the Fed operates, particularly if a more flexible monetary policy is adopted. The market reaction to Trump's comments about his preferred candidates provides a clear indicator of how sensitive these odds are to political currents, which may unsettle traditional investors looking for stability in the Fed's leadership.

Highlights

The potential appointment of Waller highlights the intertwining of politics and economic policy.