SOL Rally Could Stumble Without ETF Clarity

A critical look at Solana's SOL rally, weighing on-chain growth against futures momentum and ETF uncertainties.

SOL Rally Faces Regulators and Liquidity Hurdles

Solana’s SOL briefly touched $205 after an 18% rally in less than two days, boosting its market capitalization to about $107 billion. On-chain activity is up, with 30-day transaction counts rising 48% and network fees up 43%, suggesting real usage behind the move. However, the token failed to hold the $200 level and traders remain cautious as SOL’s weekly DEX volumes slipped to $20.6 billion. Perpetual futures funding sits around 12% annualized, a line between neutral and bullish sentiment, signaling limited but not collapsing momentum.

DEX volumes remain a weak link for Solana. Over the past 30 days, Solana’s DEX activity trails Ethereum, and the broader liquidity picture is hard to ignore given the lack of robust retail and institutional inflows. The REX-Osprey Solana ETF has drawn $161 million in assets, while Ethereum ETFs have attracted billions, underscoring a shift in investor attention toward more established narratives. The market awaits SEC decisions on Solana’s ETF and staking features, which could dramatically alter liquidity and sentiment. While nothing blocks a move toward $250, the current data shows no clear catalyst and no surge in trader enthusiasm.

On-chain indicators show Solana’s network activity expanding alongside higher fees, which could translate into real value for token holders. Yet the rally risks stalling without accompanying demand from mainstream traders and large investors. The ETF path matters because publicly traded vehicles can unlock new liquidity channels; without SEC clearance, Solana faces a ceiling on upside momentum even with healthy on-chain metrics. The contrast between rising on-chain use and tepid derivatives interest suggests a selective rally driven by a subset of participants rather than a broad, durable upshift in market confidence.

In the longer run, Solana’s edge will hinge on how regulators and institutions treat crypto exposure. Positive headlines on usage must align with clear regulatory clarity to sustain gains, especially as competing chains and layer-2 ecosystems offer increasing liquidity options. The market could see a more sustainable bounce if leverage stays contained and if retail and institutional players gain access through compliant products.

Highlights

Market participants should watch ETF developments and on-chain usage for the next move.