Preseason Top 25 face volatility in 2025 season

An editorial look at why the AP preseason Top 25 may not predict the 2025 season outcomes.

2025 college football tests every preseason Top 25 team

Fans of the AP preseason Top 25 may see an uncertain season ahead. Since the Top 25 era began in 1989, an average of 9.5 teams from the preseason list finish unranked in the final polls. That turnover has been rising as rosters shift with the transfer portal and schedules grow tougher. In 2024, 13 teams dropped from preseason ranked to unranked, including Michigan, Utah, LSU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The 2022 figure of 15 was a record high, while 2023 had only eight. About 1.7 of the top ten preseason teams finish unranked on average, and roughly two teams per season move from unranked to the final top ten. The bottom tier, from 20 to 25, also shows fragility, having finished unranked in 2022 and 2024. The article then maps out risks for each top 25 team, from Texas to Boise State, highlighting how rosters and coaching changes could reshape outcomes before late season surprises.

The piece goes through No. 1 Texas through No. 25 Boise State with caveats that rosters must adapt, from replacing offensive linemen to new coordinators and revamped receiving rooms. It notes how quarterback situations, line play, and depth on both sides of the ball can swing a season, even for programs with long reputations. The upshot is a calendar of potential pivots rather than a single sure path to success, underscoring how unpredictable the coming year may be.

The shift in tone here is not just about who sits in the top 25 but what the rankings reveal about the sport. The transfer portal has deepened roster volatility, forcing teams to balance tradition with rapid personnel changes. That creates a wider variance in outcomes, where a star laden roster can stumble, and a deep, well coached program can surprise. The article also hints at a broader dynamic: coaches must manage new play callers, patchy QB play, and line depth under the pressure of a tough schedule. In short, depth, leadership, and scheme fit may prove more decisive than name recognition alone.

Beyond the field, fans and analysts should prepare for a season where early results may not match preseason glow. The same teams that dominate spring storylines can falter if line play or quarterback rhythm lags. As programs chase continuity, the real value of preseason rankings might be their ability to spotlight risk rather than predict outcomes. The sport appears to be moving toward a model where proximity to success is earned in weeks of late decisions, not in a single summer listing.

Highlights

The real drama will unfold on the field this season.