Peace talks advance amid battlefield gains

A analysis of battlefield gains in Donbas and how they shape possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia strengthens hand in potential peace talks with steady advances in Donbas

In the Donetsk region, Moscow keeps its focus on the Pokrovsk sector, with troops pushing northeast of the logistic hub that once held about 60,000 residents. DeepState, a Ukraine-based open-source battlefield monitor, says Russia is closing in on a 16 kilometer wide pocket around Pokrovsk as fighting continues on several axes.

The British defense ministry reported that Russia likely captured about 500 to 550 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for a leader level meeting and could join talks that include the United States. Analysts caution that Russia may use negotiations to extend gains rather than produce a true end to the war, while Ukraine shifts troops and resources to bolster positions around Dobropillia and nearby towns such as Kostiantinivka as the front lines remain porous.

The shifts on the battlefield give Moscow leverage in any peace process, potentially pressing Kyiv to bargain from a position of advantage. Yet the momentum also raises the stakes for diplomacy, making a ceasefire feel less like a lasting settlement and more like a temporary pause that could be tested again. The involvement of external actors, including former President Donald Trump, adds complexity by turning talks into a wider political contest rather than a straightforward security negotiation.

The war now hinges on whether Ukraine can sustain counterattacks, plug gaps in its lines, and maintain international backing. Analysts warn that Russia may seek to extract maximum terms before any durable agreement, while Ukraine must balance concessions with credible deterrence to avoid a rapid fall in key cities. The outcome will depend on logistics, civilian resilience, and how reliably partners translate support into battlefield advantages.

Highlights

Peace talks will test the balance between momentum on the ground and durability of any agreement.