Oscars Best Actor Predictions for 2026

A close look at the 2026 Oscars Best Actor race and the contenders drawing early attention.

Oscars Best Actor Predictions for 2026

Variety's Awards Circuit lays out the early field for the 2026 Oscars Best Actor race, naming a broad lineup that includes Timothée Chalamet, Dwayne Johnson, Oscar Isaac, Jesse Plemons, Michael B. Jordan, and others. The overview stresses that these predictions reflect current standings rather than personal favorites, and that the race can shift as buzz, reviews, and festival appearances unfold. Forecasts are updated weekly on Thursdays, showing a moving landscape rather than a settled chart.

Festival notes highlight performances tied to high profile projects such as The Smashing Machine, Bugonia, Frankenstein and The Hand of Dante, as well as veteran winners and potential comebacks. The piece points to festival debuts and critical buzz at venues like Venice and Cannes as key factors that could push a performer into the race. The field remains crowded, with well known names like Daniel Day-Lewis, Russell Crowe, Leonardo DiCaprio and rising stars all in play as the season builds momentum.

The predictions reveal a balance of veteran prestige and fresh talent, suggesting the Oscar race will hinge on festival week performances, reviews, and the ability to sustain momentum through the fall. This year’s lineup shows how star power still matters, even as streaming projects and wide publicity campaigns shape the conversation. A war of narratives is likely to unfold as studios roll out campaigns and critics weigh room performances against box office legacies.

Editorially, the race feels less predictable than in recent years, with a fluid set of contenders and competing storylines. The industry will watch for early indicators from festival circuits, distribution strategies, and how audiences respond to marquee roles. The outcome may depend as much on timing and messaging as on the size of a performer’s credit slate.

Highlights

The season is just warming up as the race moves from festival buzz to nomination ballots.