Neck size ties to heart risk and mortality

Researchers suggest a simple neck measurement may predict atrial fibrillation and future cardiovascular events.

Neck Circumference Linked to Heart Risk and Mortality

A Boston University team analyzed about 4,000 adults and found that a neck circumference greater than 17 inches in men or 14 inches in women was linked to a higher risk of atrial fibrillation, a heart rhythm disorder that can raise stroke risk. The study also noted a connection between thicker necks and obstructive sleep apnea, which often accompanies AFib. The researchers measured neck and waist circumferences with standard protocols and noted neck size remained predictive after adjusting for BMI, waist size, height, and weight. They argue that neck circumference can reflect upper-body fat and may offer a simple, quick health signal.

A separate set of studies strengthens the case. An Israel study of 302 patients found larger necks correlated with diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease, with risk roughly 2.3 times higher for those with thicker necks. A Shanghai study of 1,435 adults linked neck size to future cardiovascular events, reporting that each standard deviation increase in neck circumference raised event risk by about 1.45 times over roughly 7.6 years. Taken together, the evidence suggests neck circumference could become a low-variability indicator of upper-body fat content that helps identify people at risk for heart problems.

Editorially, the finding is appealing for its simplicity. A quick neck measurement could augment risk screening in clinics without the need for complex tests. Yet the claims must be read with care: association does not prove cause, and thresholds differ by sex and population. Standardizing measurement and integrating neck circumference with existing risk tools will be essential to avoid overstatement or misinterpretation.

If used wisely, neck circumference could complement BMI and waist measurements, especially in settings with limited resources or where body composition varies widely. Policymakers and clinicians should push for diverse, prospective studies to confirm these findings across ages and ethnic groups and to determine how best to communicate the message without stigmatizing body size.

Highlights

Simple tools rarely change outcomes by themselves, but they can steer people toward earlier care.