Bitcoin nears ATH as on-chain activity lags

Bitcoin nears a new all-time high as on-chain metrics improve but overall activity remains under price levels.

Bitcoin climbs toward ATH while on-chain activity lags

Bitcoin traded near its all-time high as the BTC Z-Score rose to +1.5 sigma, signaling momentum without an overheating signal. Miners appear to be reducing selling pressure, with the Miners' Position Index at -0.46, while the Stock-to-Flow ratio climbed 75 percent to 1.5923, underscoring a stronger scarcity argument behind the move.

On-chain activity showed growth in user bases, with new addresses up 25.47 percent and active addresses up 11.11 percent in the past week, while zero-balance addresses fell 2.69 percent. Yet the on-chain activity remains below price gains, as the on-chain activity to price divergence (APD) sits at -1.5 after a rebound from -2, indicating the rally is not yet fully backed by network activity. The market has not yet closed this gap, keeping upside potential in play but not guaranteed to persist without broader fundamentals.

The rally is being fed by scarcity signals and a temporary supply restraint rather than a broad-based surge in user activity. That creates a classic risk for late-stage moves: prices can rise on belief and liquidity, even as real utilization lags. If on-chain participation continues to grow, the rally could gain momentum from a stronger foundation rather than a price-only lift.

Investors should watch whether the positive trend in addresses and the fall in miner selling translate into deeper liquidity and sustained demand. If the on-chain metrics catch up with price, the upside may extend. If they stall, the risk of a sharp pullback grows as price momentum encounters real-world bottlenecks in activity and transaction flow.

Highlights

The next few weeks will test whether on-chain health can keep pace with price gains.