Arctic reindeer at risk as study warns of sharp declines

A new study warns that Arctic reindeer and caribou could fall sharply this century as warming Arctic habitats shift.

Arctic reindeer face potential 80 percent decline by 2100

A new study led by the University of Adelaide and the University of Copenhagen projects an 80 percent drop in North American wild reindeer and caribou by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. The global population is about 9 million reindeer, with roughly 3.5 million in North America. The team combines fossils, ancient DNA and computer models to track past changes and compare future projections.

Researchers say losses during future warming could be more severe than those seen in the past. The study also warns that fewer reindeer could reduce tundra plant diversity and disturb carbon storage in Arctic soils, potentially feeding back into warming and threatening ecosystems and communities alike.

The study places biodiversity at the center of the climate policy debate. It argues for strong emissions cuts paired with steady wildlife funding to prevent ecological collapse. The tension between short term budgets and long term survival is real for governments.

Beyond wildlife, the findings show how climate risk travels through ecosystems and cultures. Caribou feed Indigenous communities and anchor Arctic livelihoods; their loss could ripple through food security, traditions and regional economies while deepening climate feedbacks.

Highlights

The Arctic will test whether science translates into policy that protects people and ecosystems